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Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States

12 Jul 2020 . Category . Comments #service #outreach #data-science #datawhys #publications #research

As part of my volunteer work for the City of Memphis - Shelby County Joint COVID Task Force in the ESF 8 Data Subcommittee, I adapted the ICL European non-pharmaceutical intervention model to the U.S.

This work is now published to the preprint server MedRxiv in order to make it available as quickly as possible to the scientific community (also at the bottom of this page):

Olney, A. M., Smith, J., Sen, S., Thomas, F., & Unwin, H. J. T. (2020). Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States. MedRxiv, 2020.07.10.20151001. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.10.20151001

Here’s the short story:

  • Lockdown is the key intervention for bringing the virus under control (of those we tested)
  • If lockdown isn't replaced by other interventions that are cumulatively as effective, the virus will continue to spread

This work was featured in the COVID-19 Lightning Talks at the FedEx Institute of Technology:

And finally, the preprint:

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