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Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States

12 Jul 2020 . Category . Comments #service #outreach #data-science #datawhys #publications #research

As part of my volunteer work for the City of Memphis - Shelby County Joint COVID Task Force in the ESF 8 Data Subcommittee, I adapted the ICL European non-pharmaceutical intervention model to the U.S.

This work is now published to the preprint server MedRxiv in order to make it available as quickly as possible to the scientific community:

Olney, A. M., Smith, J., Sen, S., Thomas, F., & Unwin, H. J. T. (2020). Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States. MedRxiv, 2020.07.10.20151001. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.10.20151001

Here’s the short story:

  • Lockdown is the key intervention for bringing the virus under control (of those we tested)
  • If lockdown isn't replaced by other interventions that are cumulatively as effective, the virus will continue to spread

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